THISDAYonline

Few months after they were jointly elected into the government house in Lagos state in 1999, Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his deputy Senator Kofoworola Bucknor-Akerele began having strained relationship. The hitherto dream team of two former Senate colleagues from the same NADECO/Afenifere pro democracy alliance started falling apart.

The certificate controversy that dogged the early part of Tinubu's governorship exercebated the rift with Bucknor-Akerele being fingered as the mastermind. Her denial notwithstanding, the governor's camp was seemingly not convinced and the cold war between the first and second citizen of the state continued till date with the governor effectively operating without a deputy so to speak.

With situation in the ruling Alliance for Democracy (AD) not too clear as there were two clear factions, Tinubu appeared powerless to do anything to get rid of his deputy. But the coast was cleared recently when AD national Chairman, Alhaji Abdulkadir Ahmed ordered the House of Assembly in states controlled by the party to impeach any deputy governor feuding with his/her governor.

With this order, attention quickly focused on Lagos and Osun state Houses of Assembly. But while the legislators in Osogbo have actually begun impeachment proceedings against Otunba Iyiola Omisore, the deputy Governor, their counterpart in Ikeja seem uninterested. But this could change very soon.

On Monday December 2,2002, hundreds of AD supporters(mostly women) and officials in Lagos state led by legal adviser, Barrister Bola Adegbesan staged a protest at the state House of Assembly to demand of the lawmakers, the immediate commencement of impeachment proceedings against Senator Kofoworola Bucknor-Akerele. Her main offence the party says was her decision to dump the AD for the newly registered National Democratic Party (NDP) as well as allegedly frustrating all efforts to reconcile her with the Tinubu administration by the leaders of Afenifere.

Although both the party and the legislators might be on slippery terrain if they pursue the impeachment option as there have been series of defections by notable politicians from one party to another in recent times, the fact that the AD is in firm control of politics in Lagos coupled with Bucknor-Akerele's seeming dwindling popularity in the state could work in favour of the party and indeed the government if they damn the consequence and went ahead to impeach the deputy Governor.

Since the governor and the deputy are irreconcilable and Mrs. Bucknor-Akerele has moved to another party, it goes without saying that the tag team of 1999 will not be there in 2003, So who picks the ticket to run with Tinubu on AD's ticket in the next governorship election. The field is wide but there are few credible candidates. While it looks too early to zero down on the likely candidates now, last Monday's protest rally at the House of Assembly shows that the race for number two in Lagos is on and any serious contender now should throw his/her hat into the ring.

Present Arrangement

The arrangement on ground now has Tinubu from Lagos west (Ikeja) tagging with Bucknor-Akerele from Lagos central. Tinubu is a Muslim while Bucknor-Akerele is a Christian. Conventional wisdom and political correctness and pragmatism suggests that Tinubu, a Muslim, should pick another Christian as running mate from the same area where Bucknor-Akerele comes from, if only to show the Lagos central people, especially the Islanders that although he may have quarrel with their daughter he has nothing against them and ready to work another of their son or daughter. To do otherwise could create problem for the governor. Also another Muslim/Christian ticket would be yet another vote getter for the governor.

Contenders

From within Tinubu's cabinet two names have emerged; Olusegun Dawodu, Commissioner for Youth and Sports; and Kemi Nelson, Commissioner for Poverty Alleviation and Women Affairs.

Segun Dawodu

A Lagos Islander from the popular Dawodu family, Segun, a lawyer is the son of Afenifere chieftain, Chief Ganiyu Dawodu. His opponents say his only claim to politics is being the son of his politically popular father. But can his father's credentials swing it for him or can he stand on his own and make it? The former is doubtful as the elder Dawodu is no longer in the same side of AD/Afenifere with Tinubu. What about the latter? Has he performed well in sports to warrant being elevated to number 2? This is debatable. But time will tell. He is a Muslim like Tinubu.

Kemi Nelson

An experienced politician she is seen as qualified for the position. Her major drawback is that she comes from the same senatorial district as Tinubu and is rumoured to be a blood relation of the governor. Aside from all these, she is said to have her eyes on the senatorial seat and thus may not be a strong contender for the deputy governorship.

Assembly Members from Lagos Central

The Lagos Central senatorial district comprising Lagos Island, Lagos Mainland, Apapa, Surulere and Etiosa Local Government areas has a mix of experienced and inexperienced politicians in the state House of Assembly, some of whom are:

Hon. Adediran.

The deputy Speaker of the House, represents Surulere 1 constituency in the Assembly. In the shadows of the Speaker Olorunnimbe Mamora, Miss Adediran lacks the stature to muster serious consideration. Moreover, her current marital problem could seriously work against her.

Hon. Agoro

Representing Lagos Mainland 1 constituency, Agoro, a real Islander is described as young and dynamic but politically inexperienced.

Hon. Sebanjo B. O

Representing Surulere 11 constituency, Sebanjo an Ijebu man is said to be interested only in becoming next chairman of Surulere local government.

Hon. Eshilokun-Sanni W. O.

Representing Lagos Island 1 constituency, Eshilokun-Sanni is an Islander to the core but his lack of political stature may push him out of consideration.

Hon Olanrewaju Ope

Another core Islander, Ope from the popular Ope family of Lagos Island appears to be the only Islander in the House with a political pedigree good enough for the deputy governorship, having cut his political teeth in the second republic. He teamed up with pro democracy activists in the dark days of military rule in Nigeria to push out the Sani Abacha regime. A member of NADECO abroad, Ope was initially slated for the Speakership of the Assembly before the equation changed. Ope's major drawback is keeping too far away from the Governor, a charge blamed on his perceived arrogance.

His experience aside, Ope's other strong point is that he is Christian and a strong member of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). So if the religious factor became a strong point in the choice of deputy governor he could just clinch it.

Outside the House

From outside the state House of Assembly the searchlight is also beaming on some politicians.

Mr. Bayo Erikitola

A serving Permanent Secretary in the state civil service, Erikitola, an engineer is rumoured to be interested, but as a civil servant, he will have to resign his appointment and make his intention known to the party. He is also from Lagos Island, which could be to his advantage when the chips are down. But would that be enough for him?

Hon. Muniru Muse

Immediate past chairman Apapa local government, Muse, a Muslim from Apapa could lose out if the religious card were to be played.

Factors That Could Determine Who'll Clinch the Post

Strong party affiliation and commitment will definitely play a major role in the choice of the deputy governor. Since it is given that AD will win the next elections in the state, each of the candidates may likely have to show their level of commitment to the party to even warrant consideration in the first place.

Surprisingly indegineship could play a role as the Islanders are expected to demand one of their own to be part of the pair in the government house.

Religion could also be a factor as Christians are routing for and fully prepared to install a Christian as the next governor and would only concede to having the deputy governorship as a last resort, especially since it looks like Tinubu a Muslim will be returned with the AD. CAN is believed to have mobilised Christians to register massively in the last voters' registration exercise, and could muster the support of about half of registered voters for any candidate or party of its choice. The association is expected to go into negotiation soon with the AD in the state.

Traditional rulers through the state's council of Obas and Chiefs are also set to play a key role this time around, same with community leaders and the business community.

Wherever the pendulum swings the governor would have a say although he might not have the final say. What is important however is that whoever the running mate would be, the two must work together and save Lagos the agony of another four years of Governor/Deputy imbroglio.