THISDAYonline

In Nigeria, it would not be out of place to say that in the political history of the last four decades, one language that has remained etched out on the landscape is political violence.

It has remained a dangerous phenomenon since the First Republic down to the Second Republic, through the Third, Fourth and the present democratic dispensation. Interestingly, attempts by successive governments to tackle or address this frightening phenomenon have been largely unsuccessful. In fact, the result of these efforts have always produced violent scenario during election periods in the country.

Worried about this recurring problem, President Olusegun Obasanjo did not just sound a note of warning to politicians about the likelihood of violence in twelve states last week, he also convened a stakeholders summit in Abuja. Last Wednesday, March 19, 2003 various combatants in the ongoing battle for control of the states were given opportunity to espouse measures that would douse the tension-soaked political tinderbox. But even at that, there is not much optimism that there will not be conflagration in the next few weeks.

The question that most political analysts are asking is: How did we actually get to this state? And where do we go from here?

Perhaps, a glance into history will help to locate the genesis of this problem. During the First Republic, the old Western Region was the most volatile political theatre.

The seed of discord was sown in 1962 between two political gladiators, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who was then Premier of Western Region and his deputy Chief S.L Akintola. The seed of discord was to blossom into a major confrontation between two diametrically opposed tendencies. The radicals who preferred reforms in Nigeria led by Awolowo and the Conservatives who preferred an alignment with the Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello was represented by Akintola. And as expected, the battle ground was the old Western Region, where both forces engaged each other in a fight to finish which snowballed into major political violence or operation wetie, a situation that inevitably contributed to the collapse of the First Republic.

Attempts to reconcile both Awolowo and Akintola failed woefully. Matters got to a head at the AG's convention held in Jos, in 1962.

At the party's national convention, the bitter feud between the two contending forces blew open. Akintola and his group staged a walk out. But Awolowo's followers rose with the following resolutions. One: That the party leadership was increasingly losing its confidence in Akintola.

Two: That there was no need to enter into a National Coalition government as proposed by Akintola and his followers. And three, an amendment be effected in the party's constitution which would allow the organisation's National executive to subject any senior officer of the party to scrutiny at conference "if it appeared that any senior officer had lost the confidence of the party"

This was the prologue to the dramatic climax in the chain of events that rocked the Western Region at that time. For on May 20, 1962 the Federal Executive Committee of the then Action Group (AG) resolved, amongst other things that Akintola was "guilty of maladministration, anti-party activities and gross indiscipline." This was later backed by a memorandum by majority of the AG members of the Western Regional legislature, mandating the Governor, of the Western Nigeria, Sir Adesoji Aderemi, to dismiss "Akintola as he no longer enjoyed the support of the members of the House of Assembly.

Thus, acting on that resolution, Sir Aderemi accordingly dismissed Akintola and named Alhaji Dawodu Soroye Adegbenro (on the prompting of the parliamentary committee of AG), as Premier on May 21, 1962. Unfortunately, that was the prelude to the big political conflagration that eventually engulfed Yorubaland and indeed Nigeria.

For in his determination to hold out, Akintola fought back like a wounded lion. First, he petitioned Prime Minister Sir Tafawa Balewa, to dismiss Governor Adesoji Aderemi. Two, he dismissed his dismissal as a huge joke, a false action as "many of the signatories to the memorandum had been obtained under duress."

Expectedly, on Tuesday May 22, Akintola backed by Oba Akran, Chief Ayo Rosiji (who was also sanctioned at the Jos convention), Chief Agbaye, Chief Akinloye, Mr J.O. Adigun and Mr S. Salami gained entry into the Premier's office and addressed a press conference, proclaiming himself as the valid Premier of Western Nigeria.

Adegbenro, on his part refused to give up. He proceeded to work as Premier from his home. The stage was thus set for the violence that threw Nigeria into crisis.

Gradually, the centre could no longer hold. The boiling tension exploded on Friday May 25, as the House gathered to debate a vote of confidence on Adegbenro's government. Fight broke spontaneously, as soon as Chief Jonathan Odebiyi, then Minister of Finance and leader of the House rose to pronounce the first business at hand.

Mr E.O. Oke, a parliamentarian from Ogbomosho South West, was the first to jump and threw a chair across the floor of the House. According to James Ojiako in his book "Nigeria: Yesterday, Today, And ...?" "at this stage, chairs and tables were freely smashed ... things got bad."

He posited: "Mr F. Ebudedike, member for Badagry East, seized the mace and smashed it on Mr Speaker's table: Mr S.A. Adeniya, member for Oyo East II, then seized a chair and hit Mr K.S.Y. Momoh, Minister of Trade and Industry. He was rushed to the hospital for treatment.

"... The Federal Prime Minister announced on May 25 that he had no alternative but to summon a special session of the Federal Parliament to ensure that there was an early return to the reign of peace, order and government." After the parliamentary deliberations on the volatile Western Region, the Federal Government promptly declared a state of emergency and appointed Dr Moses Adekoyejo Majekodunmi, as Sole Administrator of the region.

After a long chain of events culminating in Awolowo's trial, and subsequent jail, another road map to anarchy was finally set in process with the 1965 controversial general elections in Western Nigeria.

Chaos took over the streets of Western Region and the catch phrase "Operation Wetie" became the major language of political communication amongst the gladiators.

Alarmed, the then President, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe made a public declaration, suing for caution. "If Nigeria must disintegrate, then in the name of God, let the operation be a short and painless one. Let it not be featured by violence which we shunned during the dark days of our national humiliation...our politicians, if they have decided to destroy our national unity, then they should summon a round table conference to decide how our national assets should be divided before they seal their doom by satisfying their lust for office."

But disintegration was not to be. In the early hours of January 15, 1966 military officers led by Major Chukwuemeka Nzeogwu struck, terminating the life of the First Republic. Sadly, rather than learning from the lessons of the First Republic, the Second Republic politicians continued with the same style of violent approach to politics.

The scenario was not significantly different during the Second Republic as politicians returned to the soap box with brazen acts of violence.

Perhaps, the remarkable difference was that the political theatre of violence spread to other parts of the country, outside the South West.

In Anambra State for instance, the then Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) led state government of Chief J.M. Nwobodo engaged the NPN forces in a duel which culminated in a violent battle for the soul of the state in 1983.

In Ogun State, the then governor Bisi Onabanjo was alleged to have set up a private security group in 1981, which he said he had to use to help neutralise the "marauding NPN machine."

But in all of these, Ondo State stood out as the most volatile state during the Second Republic. Akin Omoboriowo, erstwhile deputy to Governor Adekunle Ajasin had defected to the NPN and secured its nomination to run against his former boss. As General David Jemibewon recorded in his book The Nigeria Police in Transition: Issues, Problems and Prospects." "As a fall out of the 1983 elections, Ondo State led the rest of the country in the scale of destruction that trailed the elections which earned it the ugly sobriquet of 'Wild, Wild West' Other skirmishes were recorded on lesser scale in other states."

In fact, to say that the arson, killings and violence that characterised the political contest in Ondo in 1983 between Ajasin and Omoboriowo contributed significantly to the death of the Second Republic is to state the obvious.

Omoboriowo who had initially been declared winner by the NPN gang flew out of Akure for his dear life, courtesy of the then Inspector General of Police, Chief Michael Adewusi who allegedly provided a helicopter that whisked Omoboriowo out of Akure, the Ondo State capital.

Ajasin, the people's choice had to assume office following a judicial pronouncement to that effect. But sadly, the ugly chain of events had threatened the very foundation of the nation's then fragile democracy. And in no time, the military struck again, throwing the country into an endless circle of a game of musical chairs; the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential polls being one. That annulment threw the country into another wave of political violence as pro-democracy agitators insisted on the re-validation of the annulled polls won by late M.K.O. Abiola, a business mogul and philanthropist.

Thus, as we face another election, the question is: Where do we go from here given the fact that President Obasanjo has alerted of 12 violent-prone states that may yet again threaten our democracy. Many analysts believe that only a conscious efforts by the political class to safe the system can guarantee peace. We try here to profile these states which we believe the president has in mind of what should be done to stop the dance.

Rivers State
Rivers state has been in the news lately, mostly for violent acts within and outside its boundarries. We had the gruesome murder of one of its prominent sons, the late Dr Marshall Harry, South-South Co-Ordinator of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). Then the governor's convoy was attacked by gunmen during the week. Harry was assasinated by unknown assassins in his Abuja home. Before his death, he was the main opposition figure to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Rivers state. Harry who was the pioneer chairman of the PDP in Rivers state and member of the PDP Board of Trustees had decamped to the ANPP after he was indefinitely suspended from the party. His death throws a cloud of uncertainty over Rivers state. But it is not an isolated case.

The Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Chibudom Nwuche had alleged last year that an assasination attempt on his life was the handiwork of Governor Odili's agents.

The alleged Nwuche assasination attempt assumed a new dimension when the Police refuted the claims of the Federal lawmaker. In addition to Police report, the alleged assassin confessed to being manipulated by the agents of the Deputy Speaker to frame Governor Odili.

Engineer Bekinbo Soberenkon is the former Peoples Democratic Party gubernatorial aspirant who was purportedly attacked in 2001 in Port-Harcourt by suspected hoodlums whom he alleged were the agents of Governor Peter Odili. Soberenkon who has since crossed over to the rival All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) had alleged that the hoodlums attacked him just as he was about to enter his residence at G.R.A Phase 2 in Port-Harcourt. "I was about to enter my house when two young men who had tailed us in a white Mercedes Benz came up to the car and fired at close range into the back of the car where I was sitting. I shouted Jesus, Jesus and I tell you that was what saved me". He attributed his survival to divine intervention. The then Rivers State Commissioner of Police had however debunked Soberenkon's claims declaring that they were spurious as investigations carried out by his men at the purported scene of the crime did not yield any evidence to support the claims of the gubernatorial aspirant that he was attacked by gunmen.

There was also the assassination of the late Honourable Monday Ndor who represented Khana 1 constituency in the Rivers State House of Assembly. Ndor, an All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) member who was shot dead in his premises. Ndor was being considered as one of those to take over the minority leadership from those who are generally considered as key Odili's men.

The late Ndor, who until his death was the Chairman of the House Committee on Lands, and not long before his death he was attacked and had his official 504 saloon Peugeot destroyed by persons erecting what was termed illegal strutures on the land opposite a fast-food centre on Azikiwe Road, Port Harcourt. The list of violence in Rivers state is indeed long.

Three persons were abducted late last year at Bera in Gokana Local Government Area of Rivers State by suspected armed youths, while the community is said to be engulfed in crises.

In Rivers state the battle is mainly between Governor Odili of the PDP and Chief Sergeant Awuse of the ANPP. While Awuse feels cheated because he was passed over by the PDP in 1999, Odili is leaving no stone unturned in ensuring that his second term bid becomes a reality. Awuse who is nicknamed 'Bulldozer' by his admirers is a grassroots politician who has a formidable machinery to match Odili who has built an equally formidable machinery over the past four years. Awuse's running mate is Iplalibo Harry, nephew to the late Dr Marshall Harry and hails from the riverine zone in the state same as Sir Gabriel Toby, Odili's running mate. While Ipalibo can fall back on the political goodwill of his late uncle vis-a-vis mobilisation of riverine youths, same cannot be said of Toby, a retired civil servant. Their parties ie the PDP and the ANPP are taking their electioneering campaign seriously as a loss for Awuse will confine him to the ranks of perennial aspirants. Other political parties in the state have maintained a low profile.

Rivers state is also home to the militant Ijaw youth group, the Egbesu Boys who always spoiling for a fight and can be easily mobilised against a perceived opponent. The creeks that dot riverine Rivers state may turn out to be a battleground the Navy may not be able to police. That is why it is one of the trouble spots the security agents have to watch closely as the general elections draw close.

Delta State
In 2001, Governor James Ibori signed into law, a bill that prohited the activities of militant groups which were accused of fostering communal violence in the state.

In Delta state, the simmering violence is seen largely as a result of the gubernatorial ambitions of the incumbent, Governor James Ibori of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and his Urhobo kinsman, Chief Great Ogboru of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Though Ibori's candidacy is still in question due to the non release of his name as one of the gubernatorial candidates for Delta state, he will be a factor in the April elections. The attempt by Ogboru to flag off his campaign last year at the Petroleum Training Institute, Effurum, Warri resulted in a violent mayhem where suspected thugs disrupted the event using dangerous weapons and inflicted grave injury on those who attended the event as well as destroyed the institute's facilities.

According to Professor Itse Sagay, "those who have observed the two protagonists and who know their capacities, predict that if James Ibori and Great Ogboru join hands and work together, Delta state will experience what they refer to as its golden age. On the other hand, should they engage in confrontation with each other, a real nightmare will unfold for the peoples of the state."

On February 4 this year, Ibori had escaped death during an exchange of gun fire between two factions of the PDP.

Presently, Shell Petroleum Development Corporation (SPDC) has shut down some 10 flow stations due to escalating violence in the Warri area where youths have gone on rampage. By the end of last week, reports had it that at least 15 people including two soldiers have died as a result of the fracas in the Warri area which has assumed the dimensions of an ethnic battle between perennial enemies, the Itsekiri's and the Ijaw's.

On March 7, 2002, three students were reportedly killed at Effurun, Delta State, after a PDP rally turned violent.

The case of Delta state is similar to that of Rivers state. Both states which are in the heart of the restive Niger Delta region have had a long history of violent attacks on oil pipeline and associated facilities by the burgeoning army of unemployed youths who are indigenes of the local communities displaced either by the construction of petroleum drilling facilities or by reoccurring oil spillage which has ruined the waterways making it impossible for the local fishermen to continue their trade.

The battle in Delta is essentially between Ibori and Ogboru and the two have made it clear that neither will yield ground for the other as accusations of sponsoring violent incidents in the state has been flying between both camps.

Like what obtains in Rivers state, these army of unemployed youths have formed themselves into ethnic and communal militias which are likely to become tools for violence for any politician who has enough money to throw around. There is no doubt that Delta state is one potential theatre of trouble that the security agencies can ignore to our peril.

Abia State
Abia state is home to the infamous Bakassi Boys, militant vigilante group which is popular in the South-East. The Bakassi Boys have remained relevant so far with the support of Governor Orji Uzor Kalu who ironically was once attacked albeit in error by the group. With Kalu going up against his former deputy, Chief Enyinanya Abaribe in the April gubernatorial elections, it appears to be a fait accompli that the governor already has a private militia which has the fearful reputation for unleashing jungle justice and mayhem in Abia state. But it would seem from reports coming from the state that Abaribe has his own faction of the Bakassi Boys especially since he has more foothold in Aba. The Aide-de-camp (ADC) to Governor Orji Uzor Kalu was manhandled in the office of the Abia State deputy governor, Chief Enyuinaya Abaribe on March 10 while attempting to retrieve a camera allegedly hired by supporters of the Deputy Governor to film demonstrators at the gate of the government house. Members of the National Union of Local Government Employees (NULGE) were at the government house to register their protest over the alleged move by the conference of Speakers of Houses of Assembly to scrap the local government system.

As they were chanting war songs and displaying their placards, the governor's ADC observed that a cameraman was filming the demonstrators from the Deputy Governor's office and when he enquired why he was not doing so from outside, the cameraman ran into one of the offices.

When he tried to identify the person, some of the demonstrators who thought he was trying to confiscate their camera descended on him and beat him up mercilessly, tearing his dress to pieces. The incident led to sporadic firing into the air by security men attached to government house.

During the celebration of the Igbo Day in September last year at Aba, youths of Ngwa extraction carried out their earlier threat to disrupt the Igbo Day celebration in the city as they attacked Governor Orji Uzor Kalu's convoy and destroyed seats and canopies meant for the ceremony at the Enyimba stadium. The governors securitymen had to shoot into the air to scare away the mob. The action of the youths frightened many people, including the Ebonyi State governor and his entourage who were forced to turn back and did not attend the ceremony. Governor, Kalu's two official cars (Toyota land cruiser) the press corps van, as well as the official car of the Commissioner for Agriculture, Chief John Ukpabi were smashed in the process.

Kalu, who was attending the Igbo Day celebration narrowly escaped death as the youths specially used clubs and matchets on the car he was driving in and the spare car following it. The incident took place at the Aro Ngwa junction in Isiala Ngwa south local government area. The youths, in their hundreds, used two trailers to block two sides of the Enugu - Port Harcourt expressway and set up bon fires which caused a hold up on the road. A Mercedes Benz 608 bus carrying some of the visitors also had all its glasses smashed and one of the occupants, Mrs Evelyn Ebere was stripped naked. The incident forced the security operatives in the convoy to shoot randomly into the air to scare the attackers and this made it possible for the governor and his convoy to escape. In the weeks preceeding the Igbo Day celebrations, the Oha Ukwa Ngwa Congress in newspaper advertisements vowed to disrupt the celebration in Aba.

A violent clash occured on July 31, 2002 in Aba between men of the Mobile Police units stationed in Abia state and members of the Abia State Vigilante Group, known as Bakassi Boys, leaving at least one person dead and businesses, paralysed.

The cause of the clash, which saw some desperate members of the Bakassi group attacking every policeman in sight, was traced to a forceful attempt by the Mobile Police to release some detainees at the Bakassi Boys detention camp.

A member of the vigilante group claimed that the Mobile policemen had forcefully released some detainees in the Bakassi detention camp, a development the vigilante group reacted to by declaring war on every policeman.

The situation got out of hand when the Bakassi Boys who laid siege at the Abaji Junction of the Enugu-Port Harcourt Expressway erroneously attacked the convoy of the state Governor, Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu, who was travelling to Aba to watch a league match between Enyimba and Julius Berger Football Club of Lagos.

Upon sighting the governor's convoy, the Boys immediately emerged from their various hideouts and started shooting sporadically in the air, causing panic among the people at the junction and those in the governor's entourage.

The police reinforcement fired mainly tear-gas cannister to disperse the groups, even as the ugly development had forced the convoy of Kalu to go back to Aba for another exit to Umuahia.

As the April polls aproaches, Abia state is a state that will come under the magnifying glasses of political pundits as a state to watch for the escalation of violence of violence as no love is lost between Governor Orji Uzor Kalu of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and his former deputy, Chief Enyinanya Abaribe of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). The recent impeachment of Abaribe days after he had resigned from his former office is a pointer to the no love lost relationship between these two politicians and a signal tto the danger ahead.

Borno State
Borno state does not make the headlines for political violence, rather like most of its sister states in the North it makes headlines for religious violence. In the Fourth Republic however religion and politics have tended to mix with explosive results.The political battle in Borno state is between the incumbent, Governor Mala Kachalla who decamped from the ANPP to the Alliance for Democracy (AD) where he has since emerged as the party's flagbearer. His position in the ANPP has been taken by his erstwhile benefactor, Senator Modu Sheriff while the PDP parades Mallam Kashim Imam.

Imam has the backing of the PDP federal government to win the state for the party while Sherrif will be aiming to confirm that he put the incumbent in office and can equally have for himself. Kachalla on the other hand is out to prove that with or without the senator he has built a political machinery that can keep him in the Governor's mansion for a second term.

In mid January 2003, many people were injured and several vehicles vandalised following an attack on the convoy of Governor Mala Kachallah of Borno State in Biu town, about 182 kilometres, south of the state capital, Maiduguri.

The attack happened when the governor attended a rally organised by his supporters in Hawul Local Government Area as part of his ongoing re-election campaign.

The governor, had arrived Biu town on his campaign tour and drove to the emir's palace where he held a 30-minute discussion with the emir.

However, as he left the emir's palace he was confronted by a group of people believed to be supporters of Alhaji Kashim Ibrahim Imam of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Senator Ali Modu Sheriff of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP).

Some of them assembled on the highway, waving ANPP and PDP flags as the governor's convoy was driving to Hawul.

They were also chanting slogans, "Borno sai SAS, Moye Kone; Borno sai Kashim. Power to the People."

The governor's supporters replied with "Yanci dole, Borno said Mala, Mala Kone, Kone." However, the situation degenerated into violent clash, when a stone from the crowd hit one of the governor's supporters.

The governor's supporters responded swiftly, by beating up supporters of the rival parties, and in the process dangerous weapons such as knives, cutlasses and daggers were freely used.

On February 23, 2003, the Speaker, Borno State House of Assembly, Hon. Inuwa Kubo escaped assassination attempt on life while on official assignment.

Political analysts have pencilled Borno state as a likely trouble spot considering the calibre of politicians gunning for the Maidugiri Governor's Mansion. In Borno an explosive mixture of politics, religion and ethnic sentiments is brewing.

Imo State
Imo used to be one of the most peaceful states in the South-east, at least in this democratic dispensation. However, things seem to have changed given recent killings of politicians in the state. It will not be surprising if violence breaks out during the election.

Ogbonnaya Uche, a senatorial candidate of the ANPP was murdered by armed gunmen who are yet to be identified. Before his assassination, Uche, a former member of PDP dumped the party because he lost out in the senatorial election. He easily picked the ANPP ticket only to be assassinated thereafter.

He was Commissioner for land, Mines and Survey in the PDP controlled government of Imo State. Uche had earlier resigned from the government to pursue his political ambition. His wife has since been asked to run in his place, a proposal which she accepted.

Not long after Uche was murdered, a principal secretary to the state government was also sent to the great beyond by yet to be identified men. Not much has been heard about him but a life has been taken in what many believe is a politically motivated killing.

Former military administrator, Navy Captain Anthony Onyearugbulam was also killed in controversial circumstances in his hotel room far away in the North. Onyearugbulam was gearing up to contest the governorship election before life was snuffed out of him. Based on this, it is believed his murder was politically motivated. The case has since died down.

In June last year, mayhem was unleashed on a remote community in Isiala Mbano Local Government Council area of the state following the sudden disappearance of a 17 year old girl. There were violent demonstrations all over the community which comprised Unoulu, Umuneke and Eziama villages. This may not be a political killing but the fact that the people took laws into their hands shows that they could easily turn violent if provoked during the elections.

Imo, a hitherto PDP controlled state may not witness a smooth transition. In the last election, PDP had a smooth ride given that it was virtually a one party state. Besides, people seemed not to be too keen on parties. The common goal was to usher in a civilian administration after so many years of oppressive military rule.

Today, there is an influx of people into the political arena. People with questionable character, who have failed in other endeavors of life have decided to join the political train to, as it were, earn a living. Money bags have also joined the business of propping up their stooges for different positions. The result is that politics is seen as a means of accumulating wealth and therefore victory at the polls should be achieved at all cost.

Governor Achike Udenwa will be fighting against an array of contenders from other parties to retain his position. The ANPP is not a party to be dismissed neither is the AD a party to be taken for granted. They both have formidable candidates.

Chief Humphrey Anumudu of ANPP and Chief Hope Uzodinmma of AD believe the Udenwa administration has failed woefully. It is instructive that they were both former members of PDP who left the party on the realisation that they have been effectively schemed out of the power game.

Aggrieved members of ANPP who dumped the party recently along with Chief Emeka Nwajiuba will be fighting to prove a point: that their candidate for the governorship election can win an election.

Nwajiuba had won the ANPP gubernatorial primaries, but the ticket was given to Anumudu by the party hierarchy based on some consideration.

At other levels of the election, state house of assembly, federal house of representatives, local government among others, money bags will be battling to either retain their position or unseat incumbent politicians.

At the national election, this state will also be divided because not many are willing to vote for Obasanjo again. While the governor is mobilising for the President, other parties are rooting for either the Buhari/Okadigbo ticket, Nwobodo/Goni ticket or other presidential candidates.

The clash of interests may throw up a volatile situation.

Ondo State
The Olowo of Owo stool crisis which dates back to the military era has threatened peace in Ondo state from time to time. There have been violent clashes and mayhem since 1999 and the issue remains unsolved.

Owo traditional chiefs accuse Adefarati of being responsible for the problem which has impacted negatively on the people of Ondo. Their contention is that the governor refused to uphold the selection of Prince Folagbade Olateru-Olagbegi as the next Olowo of Owo but Adefarati also argued that he acted in line with what was on ground before he assumed office.

Reports have it that the former military administration of Col. Moses Fasanya had refused to uphold the selection of Olagbegi by the Council of Omolowos because he was said not to have been selected according to the native law and custom.

The palace militants guards who have been causing a lot of havoc and other aggrieved people could work against the state government. In addition, a number of other wild militant groups could be used by politicians to settle scores.

In March last year, the palace guards has a clash with members of the Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) who had stopped over at Owo to refuel their vehicles on returning from a trip from Ilesha. That incident claimed about 63 lives. In July, five people were killed from a clash between the two militant groups, Ehin Ogbe Boys and the palace guards. Also in July, the Ondo State police quizzed the Owo transitional council Chairman, Alhaji Saliu Olanrewaju Yusuf and 10 others for being in possession of arms.

The PDP and AD in Ondo State have also been at each other's throat. It has not been very easy for Governor Adebayo Adefarati to wade off the disparaging onslaught of former Minister of Power and Steel, Dr. Olusegun Agagu.

Agagu contested with Adefarati in the 1999 election but lost. He was given the power and steel portfolio where he served until his resignation last year to challenge the incumbent governor a second time at the polls.

What makes the Ondo case peculiar is that the people will not vote sheepishly for the AD government like they did in 1999. Between the last election and now, a lot of water has passed under the bridge and the cult-like politics being played in the South-west seems to have given way to a more liberal one. Now people can talk of voting another party other than the AD/Afenifere regional party without being labeled renegades.

Infact, the PDP is waxing stronger though it still has the incumbency power of Adefarati to deal with.

It will definitely be a big fight. Agagu is no small fry in the political terrain. He is one of the power brokers and a grassroots politician.

Adefarati is not finding it easy either with his party. Five of his commissioners and special advisers resigned over lingering crisis that border on the governor's second term bid. Crisis among the party elders in this state is also capable of rocking the boat and could also turn out violent, moreso when Adefarati insists on having his way.

Other party big wigs like Chiefs Olu Falae and Reuben Fasoranti are not in support of Adefarati. Anything can happen in this state.

Anambra State
All indications are that Anambra will be another hot spot during the election. Following the inability of the state government to pay teachers' salary for almost one year, workers went on strike demanding vehemently for their pay.

The Anambra State Chapter of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) was also critical of the state government and gave it an ultimatum to pay salary arrears or resign honourably from government. The Chairman of Anambra NBA who was spear heading the fight was later assassinated together with his wife, Abigail.

The NBA accused the state government of masterminding the murder while calling on the federal government to declare a state of emergency in the state. The Governor, Dr. Chinwoke Mbadinuju who noted that the killing of the couple was politicised exonerated his administration from the heinous crime.

"For a noble profession to which I belong, to make this kind of grave allegation within a few hours after the killings smacks of, to say the least, indecent haste," he said then.

Today, the association is doing everything possible to ensure that Mbadinuju does not win the forthcoming election. They vehemently protested the candidature of the governor during the screening exercise for gubernatorial candidates last year.

It would be recalled that Mbadinuju was disqualified as a result of the petitions written against him by the NBA, market women and other pressure groups in the state. However, he was thereafter allowed to contest the primaries after much lobbying at the party's national secretariat.

A top official of the Anambra State Environmental Protection Agency (ANSEPA), Mr. Chude was also murdered in Onitsha on Sunday, September 14 last year. The Anambra Vigilante Service aka Bakassi Boys set up by the state government was also being accused of being used by the state government to attack political opponents. Though, cases of clashes between Bakassi Boys and other groups in the state have not been recorded, not a few had called for the disbandment of the group.

Before the introduction of the vigilante group, Anambra was notorious for armed robbery. Armed robbers usually had a field day attacking, killing and maiming citizens. This was adequately checked by the Bakassi boys. But the unconventional mode of its operation was criticised by many people. The group has been banned by the federal government.

Another factor which may create tension in the state is the changing political tide which is not in favour of major stakeholders in the state. For instance, Mbadinuju and his supporters are not only unhappy that he was manipulated out of the gubernatorial race by the PDP, he is also furious that the candidate he supported for the post failed to clinch the ticket. Instead, Dr. Chris Ngige was anointed for the position by the hierarchy of the party.

Other stakeholders in the state who had been angling to have a say in who becomes the PDP guber candidate are also disappointed at the sudden turn of events, which clearly does not favour them. Dr. Jerry Ugokwe for instance, did not re-contest for the House of Representatives where he had served for the past three and half years. Instead, he joined the gubernatorial race and opposed Mbadinuju vehemently to get the ticket.

In the long run, he neither got the ticket nor was he able to have a say in who finally secured it. He is among the array of aspirants who have been writing petitions to the party leadership, alleging that Ngige won the election primaries fraudulently.

Another member of the party, Sir Emeka Offor seems to have also lost out in the power equation which he was effectively controlling before now. His candidate and cousin, Group Captain Nnoruka also failed to clinch the guber ticket. He is said to have joined forces with Mbadinuju to ensure Ngige does not win the election.

However, it is not certain how this will be achieved because Mbadinuju has already decamped to the Alliance for Democracy where he is contesting the governorship election. Will Offor's support mean a vote for Mbadinuju?

There are other parties that are also waxing strong in the state. Most of the members of these new parties which hitherto were non existent in Anambra decamped from the PDP out of protest. They had accused the governor of non-performance, insisting bitterly that his rule has been retrogressive. For instance, schools were closed down for almost a year because of inability to pay teachers.

According to them, such a governor should not be allowed to continue in office because "he has nothing to offer".

The All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), National Democratic Party (NDP) are leaving no stone unturned. Particularly, APGA is quite formidable and will give Mbadinuju a run for his money. With the kind of scheming going on, it is evident that the various groups are dead hungry for power. The PDP members who feel short changed do anything to have their way. Mbadinuju and his supporters on the other hand will fight to retain power at all cost. The fact that he dumped the PDP at the last minute to pick the AD gubernatorial ticket perhaps shows how "desperate" he is to continue in office.

The NBA and other groups are also bent on disrupting the status quo.

Enugu State
Enugu State has been relatively peaceful for some months now, though it could be argued that combatants are in hibernation, waiting for the election proper to fight the last battle.

Last year, the state was in the news for all the wrong things. Late last year, Chief Victor Nwankwo who hails from Anambra State but lives in Enugu was brutally murdered at the gate of his home. Nwankwo, an engineer by profession was not known to be a political figure and many were left wandering what could be the cause of his death. Not much has been heard with regards to the outcome of investigations.

Last year, 14 worshippers died at the adoration ground during a crusade held by a Catholic Priest, Rev. Father Mbaka. While the church accused the state government of having a hand in the death of the worshippers, the Governor Chimaroke Nnamani administration absolved itself of any culpability.

The result of an inquiry later revealed that the worshipers died of stampede because of the narrow nature of the gate of the premises. But the church does not believe this. Mbaka has vowed to work against the second term bid of the governor.

What is however worrisome is the consistent attack on the state government and deliberate or indeliberate incitement of the public against Nnamani. At a recent remembrance ceremony of the dead held by the church, the followers of Mbaka were said to have sold provocative literature and a pamphlet titled "Terrorism on Adoration Ground" believed to have been written by Mbaka himself.

The pamphlet was said to have explained why it rejected the reports of the Justice Anthony Aniagolu and Justice Innocent Umezurike panels which were set up to probe the cause of the deaths. Apart from that, the church has been making statements to the intent that the Nnamani administration should not be supported for second term. Such incitements is capable of causing havoc and violence during the election.

Moreover, the supremacy fight between the Governor, Dr. Chimaroke Nnamani and former Governor of Anambra State, Chief Jim Nwobodo was such that the State House of Assembly was split along two divides: G8 and G16, the former is loyal to Nnamani and the other in support of Nwobodo.

At the height of the crisis the G16 fled to Abuja on grounds that their lives were in danger and that their "enemy" who incidentally is the Chief Security Officer of the state, could no longer guarantee their safety. They flew into the state in chattered flights, on a number of occasions, to conduct parliamentary proceedings. They were also quartered in high brow hotels in Abuja while their families stayed back in Enugu.

While all these were happening, the G8 were holding legislative proceedings also at a separate venue and in fact passed some bills into law. Each faction still lays claim to being the authentic group that should make laws for the state.

One thing that is instructive is that the governor has effectively taken over the control of the party machinery in the state, ready to use it to his advantage during the forthcoming election. The fight for control of the party machinery was part of the root cause of the problem between the war lords.

During the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) congress held in 2001, Nnamani ensured the state executive members were returned unopposed. This was a political master stroke because party members became loyal to him having secured their personal interest which is to continue in office.

Apparently realising that he has lost control of the Enugu PDP, Nwobodo moved to the United Nigeria Peoples Party (UNPP). Before then, he did not bother re-contesting for the Senate where he was a legislator. He is presently the presidential candidate of the UNPP.

His battle is now on two fronts: He is not only fighting to deliver the state to his party for the presidential election, he is also fighting to ensure that Nnamani does not win election for a second term in office.

The governor on the other hand has promised that substantial votes from the state will go to the President Olusegun Obasanjo and Atiku Abubakar presidential ticket while at the same time declaring that the polls will determine "who is who in Enugu State".

The other legislators are also spoiling for a show down. The Nwodo family which constitutes another power bloc in Enugu are also not in support of the governor. Dr. Okwesilieze Nwodo has already decamped to the All Nigeria Peoples Party. He is presently the party's senatorial candidate for Enugu North.

Enugu is one state waiting to explode if care is not taken. That is why it is one of the states to watch.

Kwara State
Perhaps, more than any other Nigerian state, Kwara has been in the news in the last two and half years, for the wrong reasons. In the 1950s, this geo-political niche was a hotbed of discontent between the Ilorin Talaka Parapo led by Alhaji Sule Mainto which aligned with the Action Group (AG). In 1979, the people of the state voted for the conservative National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and subsequently switched in protest, to the progressive Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in 1983. In 1999, Kwara weighed in for the conservatively inclined All Peoples Party (APP, now ANPP) to control the government machinery. Kwara is not an adherent of ideological politics, but has managed to take the best from the country's political theatre such that government at the centre does business with the people of Kwara, be it in the executive, legislature or the judiciary.

In Kwara, a melting pot that combines elements of both Northern and Southern heritage, in her political evolution the current volatility lacks precedence. The incipient storm under reference pivots around two key gladiators and lacks linkages with any ideological imperatives. In the country's last three republics, Dr Abubakar Olusola Saraki has been instrumental to who became the state's chief executive. The incumbent governor, Mohammed Alabi Lawal is a beneficiary of Saraki's king-making magic. Today, things have since fallen apart for the duo who incidentally constitute major characters whose gung-ho scripts have given life to the explosive violence roiling Kwara, and unfortunately promises a murderous climax next month.

Due to a long war of attrition pivoting on irrecocilable differences with Lawal, both parted ways with Saraki decamping to PDP to perfect an ouster plan for his erstwhile godson. Apparently miffed at the mythical Kwara godfather prowess, Lawal told THISDAY recently that "there is a misconception about this issue of godfather in Kwara politics; for a long time people have been decieved. Right now in Kwara, God is in control. I took away the structure of ANPP in Kwara...I took control at the national level and drove him out of the national ANPP." On his new platform, PDP, Saraki has positioned his son, Dr Bukola Saraki, as gubernatorial contender and the arrowhead for Lawal's ouster project. A third force in the Kwara scenario is the Alliance for Democracy (AD) gubernatorial candidate, Alhaji Lai Mohammed.

Leading up to, and since the break with Lawal, many incidents of politically motivated violence have transpired in the Kwara political turf. Just last week, no less than five people, including a cousin of the Governor were killed in a violent clash between the two warring groups. But the problem started long before then.

For three days, from Sunday March 31, 2002 to April 3 of the same year, Ilorin the Kwara capital was on fire again as thugs went on rampage, killing and maiming thereby derailing commercial activities in the ancient city.

As things stand, Kwara is a battle ground between the PDP and ANPP, while the potential for more crisis is glaring.

Plateau State
Plateau's bloody winter of ethno-religious and political discontent is largely over. In an interactive encounter with journalists in Jos, Thursday, Governor Joshua Dariye assurred that the state will have a peaceful election even as he warned that nobody was above the law. Plateau state, a micro Nigeria and bounteously endowed errupted in an orgy of ethnic-religious killings, September 7 2001. For the first time in recent history, it became the scene of mass killings and destructions on a vast scope. In the mayhem, over a thousand people were killed and tens of thousands displaced in less than one week.

Fingered as the cause of the mayhem was the friction over political, economic and religious ascendancy between the native indigenous population and Hausa-Fulani commonly called Jasawas, perceived as settlers. Trailing the psychic trauma of that bloody clash and related mutual suspicion among the two gladiatorial groups, the ghosts it birthed took a lot of the state's lean resources and time to effectively be contained.

About sixty peace parleys were convened, an expensive effort that has finally paid off. On the political front a major rift within the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led to decampings to the ANPP and AD. Retired Air Commodore David Jonah Jang went to ANPP while former Sports Minister Damishi Sango went to AD. From their new trenches they have trained a withering critical fire at the Dariye administration. From the analysis of their many pronouncements it is deducible that the April elections will be a test of faith for Plateau. One recent violence occurred at the national headquarters of the party when rival state faction of the PDP disrupted a recent function at Abuja. However, according to the governor, "Nobody will take the masses for granted. The only test of popularity is the vote. Bad luck to any trouble maker." From all indications Plateau's current administration have learned a lot in crisis management and the related skills should come in handy in diminishing its profile as a politically volatile theatre.

Katsina State
Katsina is a conservative state, a scenario that moulded its electoral pattern. In the ill-fated Third Republic, it voted Saidu Barda on the platform of the conservative NRC despite the fact that General Yaradua had then established himself as a strong political force in the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

The incumbent deputy governor, Alhaji Tukur Jikamshi is perhaps the greatest threat to Governor Yar'Adua's second term bid. Jikamshi's BBC Hausa Service interview last year in which he piloried his boss for running a dictatorial administration went a long way to demystify Yar'Adua who has fallen out with many of his party elders. Elders like Lawal Kaita, Amadi Kurfi, Ladan Dan and a host of others were sometime at daggers drawn for a number of reasons dating back to local government elections.

One of the biggest issues that will decide votes in April is Sharia. The Ulama, Islamic clerics are peevish with Governor Yar'Adua for his half hearted committment to Sharia implementation and his overt support for Obasanjo. Others are his alleged poor interpersonal relationship with various contending interest group in the state like party elders.

Some of the active gladiators from the state include former NFA Chairman, Abdulmumuni Aminu, Colonel Ahmad Daku, former governor Kano and Sokoto states and others.

For now Katsina remains one of the volatile states to watch in the April ID General elections, first, forces loyal to both General Buhari and Obasanjo will engage each other in a services confrontation that may led to violently politicking. Last year, Obasanjo was warned not to visit for security reasons by the state governor, Yar'Adua.

Benue State
As a socio-political theatre in ferment, Benue's political volatility is not in doubt. The recent Presidential order for a military expedition to that land has left a bitter taste in their mouth, providing a hair-trigger temprament. Former civilian governor of Benue, Rev. Moses Adasu, also joined the fold of AD and is set to challenge Governor George Akume for the occupancy of Benue Government House in 2003. Adasu's offensive is likely to be moderated by his clerical call. Besides Adasu ,other gladiators who will for good or bad shape the outcome of the political contest their next month include former and current national chairman PDP Chiefs Audu Ogbeh and Barnabas Gemade and many others.

Two factors are said to be working for Adasu in the state. First, the man who piloted the affairs of the state in the aborted Third Republic enjoyed extended goodwill in various parts of the states. He was said to have made great impact on the lives of the people within the two years he was in office. His legacy still speaks for him Secondly the ruling party PDP in Benue is deeply enmeshed in crises. The party is polarised between Akume group and Chief Barnabas Gemade supporters. Gemade however denied this. He told THISDAY that the situation was being misunderstood. What was being witnessed, according to him, was disenchantment by people who were fed up with a government that could not deliver. People who expressed their feelings over the negative state of affairs are labelled Gemade supporters, said former national chairman.

However the emerging scenarios portends to a situation where both groups will not work together in 2003. Adasu may cash in on the situation and receive the sympathy votes of one of the groups and possible return to the state house. Beyond this, he will not only attract votes for AD, but share up its image and credibility.