THISDAYonline

If the election of last Saturday was to sign post what to expect in the governor ship election in Akwa Ibom state scheduled for this Saturday, then it would be safe to predict that the outcome of the polls is already known.

What emerged at the end of polls last Saturday and the release of the result of the polls is that the battle for the 'Hilltop Mansion' (as the Government House is called) will be a straight fight between the incumbent governor, Obong Victor Attah of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Air Commodore Idongesit Nkanga of the National Democratic Party (NDP) and Chief Ime Umanah, the flag bearer of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP).

But from all indications, and going by the trend of events and exit polls conducted randomly in Uyo and environs by this reporter, the PDP has a 50-50 chance of forming the next government in the state. In other words, there is the likelihood that Governor Attah would be re-elected if certain things are taken as constant.

Politics in Akwa Ibom state is played on a tripod, representing the three dominant ethnic groups comprising the Ibibio, Annang and Orons.

Of these three, the Ibibio remains the dominant and has held sway in the state power equation since its creation. This scenario has led to deep-seated resentment by the Orons and the Annangs who despise the Ibibios and would want to wrest power from the dominant Ibibio group. But the most consistent in this quest for power are the Annangs who are in the fore-front of this quest for a change of guard.

Political analysts are of the opinion that this very factor is crucial and would determine where the pendulum of victory will swing in the election which comes up in two days time.

This singular factor, according to political observers in the state, will definitely come into play in the forthcoming elections.

However, these three tendencies in the state also found expression in the nature of recruitment into the parties or the choice of their governor ship candidates. The three dominant parties in the state are the PDP, National Democratic Party (NDP) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). Victor Attah, an Ibibio, is the incumbent governor and flag bearer of the PDP.

Air Commodore Idongesit Nkanga, also an Ibibio, is the governor ship candidate of the National Democratic Party (NDP), while his counterpart in the ANPP is Dr. Ime Umanah, an Annang.

Going by the outcome of the National Election results which gave overwhelming victory to the PDP, it does not appear that the PDP would have sleepless night over Saturday's election. Many believe that if the ethnic card is to played out, the Ibibio would not want to give up power easily. Being the majority ethnic group in the state, the thinking is that they would always want to call the shot.

But in the alternative it is the Annang that can give them a scare, but the numerical superiority of the Ibibio would make it a no contest. The only snag to this is the factor of the candidate of NDP, Idongesit Nkanga, who is also an Ibibio and is said to have the goodwill of his people given his impressive performance as Military Governor in the state.

What could have given an added advantage to the Annangs is the Chief Don Etiebet's factor. Etiebet on his own is popular among his people, and as the National Chairman of the ANPP, many believe he can influence the politics of the state to a great extent, particularly when it is said that he was instrumental to the emergence of Attah as governor when he was a member of the PDP and its south -south leader.

ANPP's choice of Dr. Umanah is also said to represent the quest by the Annang for a change, and for one of their own to occupy the Hilltop Mansion.

Umanah rose to fame as a business tycoon. He is fondly called Ufan Ubuene i.e. friend of the poor as a mark of philanthropy. He chose as running mate the charismatic Dr. Sam Udonsak from Eket Senatorial district who was also a governor ship candidate.

Air Commodore Idongesit Nkanga, a former military governor, was chosen as the consensus candidate of the NDP while Arc. Ubokutom Nyah from Annang was picked as his running mate.

Given these permutations in the state, the gubernatorial elections would be fiercely fought and the ethnic majority factor would be decisive in the outcome. However, below is the current standing of the candidates:

VICTOR ATTAH

Obong Victor Attah, an Ibibio from Ibesikpo Asutan and PDP candidate has the power of incumbency working for him.

Aside from this is the fact that Governor Attah recently scored a political victory through the state Assembly with the passage of the local government administration amendment bill which gives him power to elect a five man committee to manage the affairs of the 31 Local Government Councils in the state. The bill when it was passed created a furor in the state with the opposition denouncing the move as a subtly wielded weapon that the executive will use to retain power by putting stooges to man the councils at an election time.

Governor Attah however has proved that he has the magic touch in resolving disputes. He has been able to make peace with the internal opposition represented by the likes of Senator John Akpan Udo Udehe, Chief Ufot Ekaette, Ime Okopide and Moses Essien of the Abuja front faction of the PDP, who used to be his main critics.

Another factor going for Attah is his endorsement by the Supreme Council of Ifim Ibom Ibibio, the conglomeration of Ibibio traditional rulers in the land as the sole candidate of the Ibibio. Though this adoption has continued to create ripples in the polity, other bodies and traditional rulers of other areas have followed suit by adopting the Governor as their own preferred candidate in the elections. But his critics say they are yet to see the projects he promised to put in place during his first term including a refinery and Independent Power Plant.

IME UMANAH

The ANPP candidate is seen as a man who has a soft spot for the poor. He is also seen as the trump card of the Annangs who have been agitating for political relevance since the creation of the state. The Annangs who are tired of playing second fiddle to the Ibibio will most likely rally round Umanah since he is the most likely means by which they might get their desire come 2003. Apart from this, is the fact that the ANPP in the state has consistently shown a strong penchant to meet the PDP eyeball to eyeball in the election.

Another factor that might tilt the pendulum in the favour of Umanah is the fact that the National Chairman of the ANPP, Chief Don Etiebet is an Annang with a score to settle with Governor Attah whom he brought to power in 1999.

Chief Etiebet at a recent reception held for him in Uyo expressed regret in bringing Governor Attah to power and begged the people for forgiveness. He promised to right the wrong in bringing Attah to power by making sure that Attah kisses the Hilltop mansion good-bye in 2003.

That he is the political godfather of Umanah is not in doubt and this fact plus the agitation for relevance by the Annangs coupled with the fact that Umanah's deputy is a son of Eket with a lot of clout among the people might tilt the scale in their favour. Nkanga will put up a strong fight.

NKANGA

If good will is the only criterion for winning elections, then Air Commodore Idongesit Nkanga, a former military governor of the state might undoubtedly clinch the governor ship ticket in 2003.

This is because the man has tremendous goodwill as a result of his past antecedents. When he was the governor of the state for a period of only nine months he made a deep impact in the state.

Chief of his achievements while in office was that he single-handedly built the state secretariat named after him which presently houses all the ministerial establishments in the state and which has now become a reference point. He also built the prestigious Ibom Hall, amongst other notable achievements in office.

At Nkanga's declaration at Ibom Hall, the sheer love displayed for him was overwhelming. However, a factor political analysts told THIS DAY might work against him is his political party NDP which some have alleged has no political structures on ground in the state.

In the opinion of people Nkanga's chances would have been better if he was in the ANPP because ANPP as a party has more structures on the ground than NDP. In NDP, Nkanga is the only force and this might not be strong enough to tilt the race in his favour.

Another factor that might work against Nkanga is the recent decampment of his erstwhile party chairman Chief Effiong Edunam to the PDP. But Umanah will not be a walk-over.

But inspite of all things, the odds are stacked in Attah's favour, unless there are other unseen hand s at play.