THISDAYonline

At the tail end of the second calendar year of Alhaji Usman Aliyu Shehu Shagari as president during the Second Republic, the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Presidential candidate of the then Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) had declared that the Nigerian economy was at the brink of collapse and went ahead to predict that unless an urgent surgical economic operation was carried out, the nation would witness one of the worst economic crisis ever since she gained political independence. Expectedly, as soon as Awolowo who had retreated to the political drawing board after he lost the presidential elections to Shagari, released that famous declaration on the then parlous state of the Nigerian economy, reactions started flowing in from different parts of the country. The spate and intensity of the responses were akin to a volcano.

Thus for several weeks, the Awolowo famous Declaration or prophesy was the subject of intense national discourse. While the then ruling party [NPN] vilified the late sage as a prophet of doom, most serious minded Nigerians who were at home with the gloomy picture of the economy gave kudos to the man for his sheer brilliance to be able to accurately predict the outcome of the then conflicting interplay of economic and political forces and come up with a prophetic and bold verdict.

Predictably, a few weeks after that 'Awo Declaration' the Shagari government was confronted with the stark economic realities: the nation's economy was adrift and in no time the government responded with what it called Austerity Measure, to check excessive spending and arrest the dangerous drift towards chaos. But to many Nigerians Awolowo who foresaw the crisis was seen as a man who would make a better leader.

In several ways this strategy paid off politically for Awolowo and his erstwhile UPN. The party did not only emerge as the authentic and most potent opposition to the NPN controlled federal government, it also became the most viable political alternative. That perhaps explains why in the 1983 elections marred by glaring malpractices, many contended that Awolowo actually won.

Thus with the April 19 presidential/Governorship elections over, the questions being asked in political circles are: Will the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) as a political party and its Presidential candidate, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) retreat to the political drawing board in the manner Awolowo and the UPN did in 1979. Can he offer credible and constructive opposition? How can the ANPP go back to the trenches and emerge as a strong and most potent opposition in the years ahead? Or put differently, with the overwhelming standing of the PDP, how can the ANPP be saved in the days and years ahead as politicians begin to plot strategies for the politics of 2007?

Former military vice-president and ANPP Board of Trustees Chairman, Admiral Augustus Aikhomu says the party is currently holding series of consultation meetings on the way forward for Nigeria "because the election figures clearly showed that the polls were rigged as confirmed by the international observers". In a chat with THISDAY last weekend the former number two man during the regime of military president Ibrahim Babangida stressed that the ANPP remains the darling party of the Nigerian people notwithstanding the events of the last few weeks in which the PDP won most of the governorship and National Assembly seats as well as the Presidency. He said: "Everybody who is sincere in this country is aware of what happened with the way they (PDP) rigged the elections. So there is nobody who does not know that the polls were rigged and this has been con firmed by the team of international observers. So what we are doing at the moment is that we are holding series of political consultations across the country and very soon we shall soon come up with our clearly defined position on the way political way forward".

In the build-up towards the kind of political re-alignment that will shape the political scene in the days ahead, analysts are of the view that should the ANPP actually position itself strategically, it can indeed emerge as the most potent political party in Nigeria. Those who hold tenaciously to this position are of the view that given the implosion that may likely occur within the PDP in the sharing of positions and the national cake. The ANPP can begin to exploit those issues to galvanise public support for itself. Dr Peter Okohi, a Political Scientist at the Lagos state university does not just share this position but adds that the ANPP, as things stand in Nigeria today, holds the ace depending on how it manages the post-election politics era. He posits: "In every society, the political inter play of forces depend on many variables. All over the world these political variables are always there but it depends on how the are effectively maximized. In the case of Nigeria, the issues are clear. Obasanjo is really one of the most unpopular presidents this country has ever produced. The evidence are all there for all to see.

"It is only in the South West that you could really talk about the Obasanjo factor because he is a home boy hence the Yoruba voted massively for him. The Yoruba would definitely want an Obasanjo any day compared to Buhari. This does not however justify the controversial figures in places like Ogun state."

Thus, experts are of the view that the ANPP will present a strong challenge to the PDP if it manages its affairs quite thoroughly and effectively in the days and months ahead. First, with a political dominance in the North West zone and a good showing in the North East with its hold on Yobe and Borno the party stands a very good chance of emerging as the most potent political movement in Nigeria in the days ahead.

Interestingly, the ANPP is not unaware of this possibility. Apparently working on this agenda, the Buhari campaign organisation at the weekend mounted an international campaign on the call by the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and 28 other political parties for the cancellation of the April 12 and 19 national elections. From information sourced by THISDAY it was clear that the ANPP and the Buhari/Okadigbo campaign organisation are not taking things lightly. An eight-man delegation led by a retired senior Nigerian Airforce officer, has been dispatched to Europe to drum up support for the stand-down of the controversial elections which they claim were characterised by massive rigging and fraudulent practices. Information available to THISDAY indicate that the team would visit and hold series of political consultations with government officials in the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Russia, Australia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Spain and the United States of America.

The Buhari Factor...
Political analysts maintain that more than anything else, the Buhari remains a critical factor to the survival or otherwise of the ANPP in the months to come. Like the PDP presidential candidate, General Obasanjo who was once a military Head of State, Buhari is also a former military Head of State. Many insist that the military mindset of Obasanjo, like most Army generals who see the opponent as an enemy that must be destroyed was greatly responsible for the anatomy of crises that hit the PDP. How Buhari and the ANPP will handle critical political issues in the weeks and months ahead will thus determine whether the one time military Head of state still sees himself in the mould of an Army General set to liquidate his rivals or a statesman and political tactician working for the growth of his party and country. It would be recalled that Buhari became head of state after his military colleagues sacked the civilian administration of President Shehu Usman Aliyu Shagari in a coup staged in the early hours of January 1, 1984.

From that 1984 to August 1985, Buhari in conjunction with his deputy, the late Major General Tunde Idiagbon ruled Nigeria with iron fisted hand following their resolve to solve the nation's problems in one breath. They were fast and decisive and in some cases intolerant of criticism.

And so when the Chief of Army Staff in Buhari's regime, Babangida, led other soldiers to remove Buhari and Idiagbon from power on August 27, 1985, Nigerians trooped out to jubilate the overthrow of such a draconian leadership. Though the jubilation soon proved to be short-lived, Nigerians could not wait to savour the bliss of freedom from Buhari's tyrannical rule.

For some time, about 40 months, under the Babangida regime, both Buhari and Idiagbon were placed under detention. Indeed, for much of Babangida's rule, Buhari was virtually totally shut out of public glare.

He, however, broke his silence after the debacle of June 23, 1993 when General Babangida made perhaps the most costly political mistake of his life by canceling the presidential election won by the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola.

Shortly before Babangida took his exit from power, Buhari had teamed up with Obasanjo to intervene in the ensuing national crisis that trailed the cancellation of the 1992 presidential primaries of the two political parties, the then Social Democratic Party and the erstwhile National Republican Convention, and later the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election by the Babangida regime. Things were to move at a fast pace. Incidentally, Buhari and Obasanjo had to fight but at that time on the same side and for the same cause - the annulled polls.

Under the leadership of Obasanjo, Buhari with Tunde Idiagbon, Alani Akinrinade, David Jemibewon, Ebitu Ukiwe and Sam Mbakwe, among others formed the Association for Democracy and Good Governance (ADGN) and it was under that platform that the battle was piloted against the Babangida regime and later Abacha's regime at the initial stage before Buhari joined the PTF.

It was under that umbrella that the former leaders worked to find a peaceful solution to the national crisis that followed the annulment of June 12 presidential election, ostensibly, as Obasanjo had posited, "to ease the bull out of the Chinaware shop". In other words, to ensure that Babangida left power peacefully without doing any more damage to the Nigerian nation.

Yet, shortly after Babangida left office and appointed Chief Ernest Shonekan to head the Interim National Government (ING), the ADGN regrouped under a new umbrella which was named as the National Unity Organisation of Nigeria (NUON). Buhari played a great role in that period and for that many believe he can still be a rallying point for the defeated parties against the dominance of the PDP government.

He can be a constructive critic of government policy, reach out to other zones and help entrench democracy.

ANPP at the Beginning...
At the inception of the Fourth Republic, the All Peoples Party (APP) now known as the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) was a very large party, second to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The party was in a position to play the role of a stiff opposition party to the PDP controlled government not only because of its sheer size but also because of its national spread. However, the party was crippled due to lack of visionary and vibrant leadership among other factors.

ANPP crisis started right after the 1999 elections. It would be recalled that the party entered into an alliance with the Alliance for Democracy (AD) during the presidential elections. AD which was the junior party produced the Presidential flag bearer, Chief Olu Falae while ANPP's Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi became Falae's running mate.

After they party lost in the election, AD pulled out of the alliance, immediately recoiling back to the South-west which is its stronghold. Ever since then, ANPP has never recovered, instead the party has moved from one problem to the other endlessly.

The second blow came when the party's National Chairman, Chief Mahmud Waziri accepted to serve in the President Olusegun Obasanjo administration as an adviser. Obviously, this was a tactical move by the PDP to cripple and dismantle the only party capable of posing a virile opposition at the time. And it worked very well.

Soon after Waziri left, Alhaji Yusuf Ali succeeded him as the chairman. Ali's leadership did not succeed in re-focusing the party, rather ANPP continued to slide into the abyss. While some members of the party stayed on, hoping for its miraculous revival, Ali made matters worse with his style of leadership. His suspension order on some prominent members of the party led to decampment and bitter wrangling.

In Imo State for instance, the deputy leader of the party in the Senate, Dr. Bob John Nwannunu was suspended for making "uncomplimentary remarks" about the party. Nwannunu's sin was that he made an honest review of the state of his party arriving at a verdict that the party was in comatose.

Irked by the senator's statement, his ward, the Amaise Ahaba Ward 1 in Isiala Ngwa South local government Area of Abia State reacted by suspending him from the ward for "anti-party" activities. But even before the ward reacted, the then National Secretary of the party, Chief George Muoghalu threatened to sanction the senator for his "uncomplimentary remark".

As a result of the declining state of the party, Senator Arthur Nzeribe and Florence Ita-Giwa decamped to PDP. In other states of the federation, the party was also embedded in crisis and the leadership of the party could not handle the grievances very well. It gradually drifted into oblivion.

In Borno State, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff was engaged in a supremacy battle with Governor Mala Kachallah. In Cross River, one of its foundation members, Dr. Joseph Wayas crossed over to PDP. In Akwa-Ibom State, Obong Akpan Isemin, former governor has also led the decampment of some key members to another political party. In Kwara State, the leadership of the party backed the Governor Mohammed Lawal faction against the Dr. Olusola Saraki faction.

This boosted the governor's ego and perhaps prompted him to make this statement: "the APP is united and intact. Everything in Kwara has been very formidable, there is no faction per se. In any structure, like my party, there is no way you would not have people with different interests and approach, but we have only one APP in Kwara State" he said.

The situation helped by the appointment of Lawal as the Chairman of the National Convention Planning Committee of the party, an action which further affected the party negatively. Saraki's political camp saw Lawal's appointment as an affront and a slap on his face. He dumped the party before the election and sponsored his son, Bukola to contest for the governorship. Today, Lawal has been defeated and the PDP government will take over the state.

In Bayelsa and Edo States where the state leadership of the party were posing strong opposition to the state governments, the national leadership of the party did not take advantage of having such strong leadership in those states. The Bayelsa chapter for instance did not have a smooth relationship with Ali.

Instead of stemming the tide, Ali got involved in internal manueovres to retain his position as chairman of the party. This explains why he appointed Lawal as the chairman of the national convention planning committee of the party.

In Bayelsa State, the anger of some party members is against the inauguration of a 13-man convention committee led by Lawal. They contended that the constitution of the party did not give the national chairman, Ali, the powers to constitute a convention committee. "In the first place, the constitution of our party does not give the national chairman the powers to constitute a convention committee as it is evidenced in the letter he personally wrote to the committee members he nominated".

Continuing, Bayelsa APP leaders said "we are tempted to believe that Ali has a hidden agenda. Our fears are heightened with Ali's pronouncement that the convention is not for elections. It behoves the convention committee to decide during the convention, after an appraisal of the performances of the present leadership, whether Ali should remain or not".

There was so much low spirit in the party that many of the prominent leaders did not bother to make individual efforts to strengthen the party in their areas of influence.

As ANPP was tottering, the PDP was gaining more ground. It is remarkable that PDP flagged off its campaign in ANPP states like Gombe and today it has won the state. Though there have been allegations of rigging, the massive audience witnessed at that rally was some sort of evidence that the party had mapped out strategies to take over the state.

The Merger
The entry of Buhari into ANPP changed the political calculations in the party. Shortly after that, the party made attempts to shore up its membership through a merger with the United Nigeria Democratic Party (UNDP) which was yet to be registered at the time.

The party leadership also thought it imperative to join forces with another group in order to create an adequate platform to challenge the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2003 elections.

Remarkably, two of the party's governors, Prince Abubakar Audu of Kogi State and Alhaji Mala Kachallah of Borno State joined a host of other PDP governors to pay a solidarity visit to President Olusegun Obasanjo at his Ota farm in Ogun State to urge him to contest the 2003 polls. The implication of this action by the governors was not lost on the party.

A part of the UNDP now called the United Nigeria Peoples Party (UNPP) led by Chief Don Etiebet and former military Vice-president, Vice-Admiral Augustus Aikhomu (rtd) joined ANPP and the name was formally changed from APP to ANPP during its national convention last year. Other members of the UNDP included Alhaji Ashiek Jarma, former Speaker of the House of Representatives in the second Republic, Chief Edwin Ume-ezeoke, Mr. Clement Akpamgbo, who was Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the federation during the IBB regime, Chief Duro Onabule during who was the Chief Press Secretary to Babangida among others.

Before its national convention late last year, the party had postponed the exercise three times. When it was slated for July 2002, it still could not hold due to Independent National Electoral Commission ( INEC's) failure to conduct the exercise. INEC claimed it had received a court injunction restraining it from conducting the exercise.

Some members of the party smelt a rat and this prompted a petition to be written by Minority leader in the House of Representatives, Hon. Muhammed Kumalia, indicting the commission for its action. Surprisingly, INEC apologised to the party afterwards while blaming its action on for the botched convention on technical efficiency.

"Technical inefficiency may have been responsible for what happened. I would like to blame what happened on technical inefficiency, if the points were brought to my attention, we would have overruled the legal people. Let's put this behind us. If we had a day extra, it may have been different. I am sorry and we should put this behind us," pleaded INEC boss, Dr. Abel Guobadia.

Finally when the national convention was held, a fresh controversy arose as a result of the party's decision to pick Buhari as its consensus presidential flag bearer. Other presidential aspirants including Chief Rochas Okorocha, Chief Pere Ajunwa, Chief Edwin Ume-ezeoke among others walked out on the party the same day.

The New Challenge
Buhari has been making statements since the elections ended. He has severally called for mass action as a protest against the "massive rigging" perpetrated by the ruling PDP during the governorship and presidential polls.

If he is going to make any impact, he definitely needs to go along with the ANPP governors who seem to be playing safe. Recently, Governor of Sokoto State, Attahiru Bafarawa said that though the party is behind Buhari, ANPP would want to follow the due process of the law.

How does one explain the presence of two ANPP governors at Aso Rock, congratulating Obasanjo? Governor Adamu Aliero had cut celebration cake together with the President and his vice, Atiku Abubakar at Aso Villa openly. Governor-elect of Borno State, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff had equally congratulated Obasanjo openly. Is this all in the spirit of sportsmanship or could it mean that something is going on underground?

Besides, ANPP governors have not come out vehemently to condemn the result of the presidential election like Buhari. They seem to have kept calm. Rather, the person who has been championing the mass action protest is the National Chairman of the party, Chief Don Etiebet. The real financiers of the party all these years, the ANPP governors are riding safely it seems.

Given the intense speed with which re-alignment is taking shape, both Buhari and Okadigbo and indeed the ANPP will have to do more to keep its political troops from being hijacked by the PDP. The party also has to reach out to other zones in the South. A situation in which it was restricted to the two zones is not good enough.

Under the present situation, there is no way anybody can win the presidency in Nigeria using the ANPP platform and that may have been responsible for Buhari's failure. Before the election, the way ANPP was projected as a Northern/Muslim party was unhelpful. He needs to build more confidence in the South. How this is done and the ability of the party to sustain its potent opposition posture will determine the survival of ANPP.

But Buhari has started well by cultivating the defeated APGA candidate Ikemba Odumegwu Ojukwu. That can give him leverage in the East should they agree to work together.