THISDAYonline

The federal government last week announced a new population policy to replace that of 1988 formulated by the Babangida administration. From highlights of the new policy given by the Minister of Health, Eyitayo Lambo, its main thrust is to ensure that population growth does not hinder economic progress. To realise this goal, the new policy targets a growth rate of not more than two per cent by 2015 as opposed to the current official rate of 3.5 per cent.

Although it does not prescribe the number of children a woman may have, the new policy promises to educate parents on the need for fewer children. Emphasis will be on improving the quality of life and standard of living of the people and reducing infant and maternal mortality.

Based on what has been made public about the new population policy, it could be said to have lofty goals among which is to match the population with available resources and enhance the quality of life. The snag, however, is that the new policy appears to be based on assumptions which makes it look like a leap in the dark.

A population policy that is not predicated on the result of a credible census, in our view, is tantamount to putting the cat before the horse. Whatever figures are being used today as the population of Nigeria are at best an informed guess which can never be a substitute for an accurate census figure. The trouble with estimates is that planning on that basis can be fraught with dangers. A head-count of Nigerians should have been the first priority of the government. Thereafter, a credible population policy can follow.

At it is, not every body believes that the country is over-populated. And in the absence of an accurate census figure, it is hard to fault such a view. Indeed it is possible that what the government sees as over-population is just uneven distribution of the population. With bursting and clearly over-populated urban centres it is often tempting to conclude that the country is over-populated. Yet, in terms of the available natural resources, especially land, the nation may be far from being over-populated. It is necessary therefore to draw a line between urban explosion arising from the utter neglect of the rural areas, and over-population.

Nigeria's real problem may not be over-population but her inability to manage profitably her human and natural resources to the benefit of its population. Government needs to address the pressures that drive people from the countryside to the cities. Emphasis should be on the development of the human capital through good healthcare delivery and quality education. That way it will be easy to turn the existing population into an asset.

Any population policy that does not clearly address the issue of human capital development is doomed from inception. Today, life expectancy in the country stands at a dismal 47 years. For a nation with Nigeria's natural endowments, that is a shame. The best way to raise life expectancy is through massive human capital development.

The former population policy proved to be a non-starter because it failed to address these basic issues. Mere sloganeering is not a substitute for mobilising the populace to achieve set goals. Fortunately, the Health Minister has assured that the current policy will be different in content and implementation from its predecessor. However, assurances are not enough. Government must have the political will to take the steps to achieve the targets.

We believe that a national census is over due. Whatever has been the obstacle to conducting one must be removed by the government. Only an accurate census can show the structure and distribution of the country's population which is vital for economic planning. True, unrestrained population growth may have unpleasant consequences. But a population control agenda based on assumptions could do even greater harm.